The Best Soccer Betting Strategy

1. Live Betting Strategy
2. Football Betting Strategy
3. The Best Soccer Betting Strategy Tactics
4. What Is The Best Betting Strategy
5. Best Betting Strategy For Blackjack
6. The Best Soccer Betting Strategy Games

If simplicity is what you want in your successful soccer betting strategy, then football matched betting is the most profitable one. A free bet offer is all you need for this strategy that almost every bookmarker offers. Also, most sportsbooks have welcome. Betting on draws in football is an often-overlooked betting strategy. Most fans expect their team to win and the other to lose, which influences their bet choices too. In this article, we list the betting sites for betting on football draws, the probability of them happening, how to predict them and more. Dutching correct scores is a very popular soccer dutching strategy. It’s also one of the most straightforward. The idea here is simply to cover a selection of the most likely final scores, by placing the necessary correct score wagers. This strategy is extremely flexible, as you can choose whichever correct scores you think are the most likely. Find a betting company that suits you and has odds that are slightly better than the market. Therefore you will be able to get 1.40 or 1.45 in a game instead of 1.35. If you play 100 euros in each match and you win, then your winnings will be 1 euro higher, which is about a 10% difference. Both teams to score is a great way of betting on all types of football matches. On the surface Both Teams To Score (BTTS) is a pretty straightforward concept, but it's very hard to identify the right matches. We developed a easy system to select the best candidate matches in which both teams will score.

We genuinely want our readers to become successful football bettors. That’s the whole purpose of this football betting strategy guide. It’s why we’ve put so much time and effort into writing and compiling it. We quite simply want to help you make money.

But we want you to be realistic too. The last thing we want to do is give you the impression that we can teach you some amazing betting system that will set you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams. That’s just not going to happen, because no such system exists.

The fact is that there’s no definitively correct way to go about deciding which football wagers you should place and when. There’s no one system that works effectively all of the time and in every situation. Football is too unpredictable for that to be the case. So football betting strategy is somewhat more complicated than simply following a set of rules and watching the money roll in.

There’s actually a wide range of different strategies that you can apply to your football betting decisions. Many of these have significant merit, but the most effective ones are quite advanced. This means they probably aren’t suitable for beginners. It’s not practical to try to understand complex strategies while you’re still figuring out the basics. You need more experience before you’re ready for those.

Of course, in the meantime you still want to maximize your opportunities for making money. You won’t become a successful bettor overnight, but you certainly want to set out with the right intentions. This means learning how to actually implement betting strategies as soon as you can. And this is something we can help with.

On this page we’ve detailed a few strategies that we recommend for beginners. They’re pretty straightforward, so they’re not too difficult to understand. They all have the potential to be effective, but don’t expect them to lead to easy profits. Like so many betting strategies, they are basically just general guidelines to what you should be betting on and when. You still need to evaluate and analyze individual opportunities for yourself. They’re a great place to start though, so please read on to find out more.

Basic Value Betting

The concept of value is something you HAVE to be aware of if you want the best chance of making money from betting on football. Trying to make accurate predictions isn’t enough by itself; you also have to look into different bookmakers. It’s possible that their odds could leave ample opportunity for extra value.

Here’s a somewhat extreme example to illustrate this point.

Two football teams are playing a game towards the end of the season. The home team has been absolutely flying, and has lost only one game so far. The road team has been struggling, and has only won two games. To make matters worse, they’ve just lost two important players to injury.

After comparing the overall quality of the two teams, you’re understandably convinced that the home team is going to win the game comfortably, so you’re planning a big bet on the moneyline. Now let’s say that the odds offered on this team to win are -10,000.

We expect your answer to this is probably no. What’s the point? No matter how likely you think the home team is going to win, a wager at these odds makes no sense. There’s always a chance that something unexpected is going to happen.

Now let’s say that the odds on the road team at +10,000.

We hope that you would. It might be very unlikely that the road team is going to win, but not unlikely enough to warrant +10,000 odds. There’s enough of a chance of them winning that this actually becomes a good bet to make.

Now, no bookmaker would ever actually offer these odds on a single game of football. We used extreme numbers just to make the point clear. A bet that’s very likely to win isn’t necessarily a good bet if the odds are too low. And a bet that’s unlikely to win can still be a good bet even if the odds are too high. That’s the fundamental concept of value. It exists whenever the chances of something happening are greater than the odds suggest.

Value is a concept that you should apply, at least to some degree, in any betting strategy that you use. “Value betting” is also considered a strategy in its own right, and it’s simple enough to mention here. All you’re basically trying to do is look for spots for where you believe an outcome is more likely than the implied probability of the odds on that outcome.

If you’re not familiar with implied probability, or would simply like to learn more about value betting in football, please take a look at the following article.

Situational Handicapping

We’ve already touched very briefly on the subject of comparing the overall quality of football teams before making predictions. There’s obviously some merit in carrying out these comparisons, as it’s a good way to start forming some opinions about how a game of football might play out. In theory, the better team is always going to be more likely to win. So that’s something you can factor in when looking for betting opportunities.

It’s important to note that it’s not only the quality of teams that affects the outcome of games though. The circumstances surrounding a game of football have an effect too. And they are always unique to each individual game in some way. No two situations are exactly the same.

This is one reason why predicting the outcomes of games can be so difficult. It’s hard to take everything into account and accurately assess just how much influence the various different factors may have. Situational handicapping is a broad strategy where the aim is to do exactly that though.

The fundamental idea here is to first consider which variables are going to affect the outcome of a game. Then you try to figure out what impact those variables will have. This can help you make informed judgements about what’s likely to happen.

Here’s a list of some of the situational factors you should be looking at.

Playing Conditions

The performance of some teams can improve or drop based on the playing conditions. Consider factors such as the surface, the weather and the stadium.

Streaks

Teams on winning streaks will want to keep winning, while their opponents may be fired up to stop them. Teams on losing streaks will be low on confidence, while their opponents may underestimate them.

Travel

How far has the road team had to travel? Have they gone across time zones? These things regularly affect performances.

Previous Matchups

Is one team going to be out for revenge? That can be a big motivating factor.

The Standings

Do both teams have playoff hopes still? Just one team? A game between two teams with something to play for can be very different from a game where there’s nothing at stake for one team.

Injuries

Injuries can have a big effect on teams, particularly if it’s big name players that are missing.

The Schedule

Have the players had much rest recently? Have they been playing a number of tough games in the last few weeks, or have they had a relatively easy run of games?

We explain these situational factors thoroughly in our article discussing what affects the outcome of football games.

The contrarian strategy is also known as fading the public, or betting against the public. The idea is simply that you bet on the opposite to what the majority of people are betting on. It’s based on the simple theory that the majority of people are going to be wrong, as most people who bet on football are overall losers.

You can’t really fault the logic here. It’s 100% accurate that most football bettors do lose money. So it’s not unreasonable to therefore assume that going against what most people are betting on is going to be profitable. And there actually was a time when this simple strategy could be very profitable. Unfortunately this was many years ago now, back when the bookmakers weren’t quite as efficient at setting their odds and lines as they are now.

This strategy is TOO simplistic these days. The fundamental principle is still sound, as the public does still frequently overvalue one side of a line. This is especially true of big games that attract a lot of interest, as these are the type of games that most recreational bettors bet on. However, the strategy needs some refinement to be truly effective.

We wouldn’t talk you out of using this strategy even in its most basic format though. If you’re selective enough and choose the right spots, you can probably still make some money from betting against the public. And it’s a nice and simple strategy to use as a beginner.

Eventually, though, you should learn about how to use public opinion to your advantage with some slightly more sophisticated strategies. Please see the following article for more on this subject.

Following Steam Moves

Following steam moves is about trying to emulate what the really smart bettors are doing. It’s based on the theory that big moves in the betting markets are usually caused by betting syndicates and/or successful high stakes bettors getting their money down. They’re betting so much money that the bookmakers and betting sites are forced to make significant adjustments to their odds and lines. These adjustments are known as steam moves, or simply steam.

The aim with this strategy is to figure out what these smart guys are betting on based on the changes made to the odds and lines. Then you simply follow them and bet the same way. This seems like an entirely logical approach, and this strategy does in fact have the potential to be profitable. There are a couple of problems with it too though.

First is the simple fact that these steam moves can happen at any time. You’re going to miss them unless you’re constantly paying close attention to the odds and lines. This isn’t very practical for most people, to say the least. Second is the fact that you’ll only actually notice steam moves once the odds and lines have already been adjusted to account for the weight of money. So by the time you know what to bet on, the markets may have moved to a point where it’s no longer the right bet to make.

Following steam moves can definitely be profitable in the right circumstances. So this is a strategy that we do recommend implementing when you can. Just be prepared for suitable opportunities to be in short supply.

As a general rule, the public prefer betting on favorites. The bookmakers know this, and set their odds and lines accordingly. We’ve already touched on this concept when talking about the contrarian strategy.

This strategy is a little more precise though. It’s about specifically looking for value in games where underdogs are playing at home against popular teams. Many recreational bettors will put their money on popular road favorites without much thought at all, and that can often make home underdogs an attractive betting proposition.

Please note, however, that the idea isn’t to simply bet on the home team anytime that they’re an underdog. That’s unlikely to be a successful approach in the long run.

What you need to do is to examine such situations and determine whether there actually is any value in backing against the favorite. You’ll find plenty of spots where a home underdog has a really good chance of covering the spread, and some where they may even be a good bet to win outright.

The concept of this strategy is very straightforward. It’s based on the fact that bookmakers and betting sites will sometimes offer odds and lines that are noticeably different from the rest of the market. This might simply be because they have a different outlook than everyone else. Or it might be because of the wagers they’ve already taken or are expecting to take.

For example, let’s say a bookmaker has taken a lot of money for the favorite on the spread. They may then adjust their spread to discourage any more money from coming in for that side. This can create value on the other side of the spread, as they’ll end up giving the underdog more points than anyone else. In this situation, a bet on the underdog to cover might be the sensible thing to do.

To find off-market prices, you need to compare the odds and lines at a variety of different bookmakers and/or betting sites. You’re looking for anything that stands out as being noticeably different. You might see the following at four different betting sites for example.

• Betting Site A
  Philadelphia -7-110
• Philadelphia -7-115
• Philadelphia -6.5-110
• Philadelphia -5-110

Betting Site A has a very straightforward line. The spread is seven points, and both teams are available at the “standard” odds of -110. Betting Site B is offering a similar line, with slightly different odds on the same spread. Betting Site C is offering a slightly different spread, but only by half a point.

Betting Site D, however, is a full two points different on the spread. If you spot a situation like this, it’s almost certainly right to back Philadelphia at -5. This is for the sole reason that you’re getting an extra two points over what the rest of the market is suggesting. You’re not guaranteed to win, of course, but it’s a good bet to make unless you can find a very good reason why this spread is so different from the rest of the market.

Please note that these situations, and others like them, used to be reasonably commonplace in the football betting markets. The markets are much more efficient these days though, so opportunities for skewed lines are rare. They do still exist though. So it’s not a bad idea to keep an eye out for them.

Betting middles is a strategy that provides the potential for profit without taking much risk. The idea here is to take advantage of opportunities where it’s possible to bet on both sides of a game and have a chance of winning both wagers. Such opportunities don’t happen often, but they DO happen.

Bookmakers and betting sites regularly adjust their lines based on the wagers they take and new information that they may receive. When these adjustments are big enough, it can be a good spot to bet both sides of a game.

Here’s an example.

The Patriots are playing the Chiefs. It’s a few days until the game, and the early lines have the Patriots as the favorites on a 7-point spread. You like the look of the Patriots, so you get your money down early. Over the next couple of days, a lot of other bettors do the same. There’s so much money coming in for the Patriots that by the day before the game they’re now ten point favorites.

Not only did you get your money down at the right time in this situation, you now have the opportunity to bet a middle by placing another wager on the Chiefs at +10. This means the following outcomes are possible.

Live Betting Strategy

• You’ll win BOTH wagers if the Patriots win the game by eight or nine points.
• You’ll win one wager and push the other if the Patriots win by exactly seven or exactly ten.
• You’ll win one wager and lose the other if the Patriots win by more than ten points or less then seven.
• You’ll win one wager and lose the other if the Patriots lose.

In a worst case scenario, you’re going to win one wager and lose the other. So your only risk is the vig. But there’s a possibility of winning BOTH your wagers, or winning one and pushing the other. That’s a good spot to be in, especially when the favorable outcomes are based on the more likely score lines. It’s fair to say that betting middles is an attractive strategy whenever suitable opportunities arise.

The Rebound Game Strategy

The rebound game strategy is beautifully simple. It doesn’t require much work at all. All you need to do is study the results of games and look for teams that have suffered a blowout, lost a game they were expected to win, or experienced some other kind of setback. Then you apply the bounce back theory.

The bounce back theory states that teams will put in an improved performance if they’ve just been beaten badly: or lost unexpectedly, or lost really late in the game. It’s based on the idea that setbacks like this can really motivate a team to do better the next time they play.

The flaw in this particular strategy is that you can never be certain that a team is going to react positively to a setback. It’s also possible that they’ll suffer from a loss of confidence and spiral into a bad run of form. So we don’t recommend that you automatically back a team just because they were on the wrong end of a bad loss in the previous game.

You should definitely look out for scenarios where the bounce back theory might apply though. They can definitely be profitable if you know enough about the teams involved. If you’re confident that a team has a really strong mentality, for example, then it probably is right to back them based on the strong likelihood that they will bounce back.

The Bye Week Strategy

The bye week strategy is based on a loose trend of teams performing better than average following a bye week. It’s an incredibly simple strategy to implement, but it’s also very limited. The idea is simply that you bet on a team in their first game after a bye week. There’s literally nothing more to it than that.

We can’t recommend this strategy in its most basic format, even though there IS statistical analysis that shows teams have a higher than average win rate in games following their bye week. This is just not a good enough reason to blindly back teams in isolation of all other factors. The betting markets already account for the advantage of the extra rest and preparation time, so you’re not going to find any value with this approach.

The basic strategy does have some merit, but it needs to be adjusted for it to be truly effective. This requires digging deeper into some statistical analysis, and trying to find out in what circumstances the bye week has the greatest effect. This isn’t particularly simple though, so it’s not really appropriate when discussing simple strategies for beginners.

Why have we mentioned it all then? Because it’s still a good way to highlight potential betting opportunities. It’s actually a very good idea to look closely at games involving teams coming off their bye week, as you can find some good spots to get your money down. It’s just important that you don’t automatically bet on the team that’s had the extra rest. You need to consider some other factors too.

Teasers are a specific type of parlay that allows you to modify the point spread in your favor. In exchange you take reduced odds. They’re relatively advanced wagers, but not so complicated that beginners should avoid them. You just need to spend a little extra time learning how they work.

A basic strategy for this type of wager is commonly referred to as Wong teasers. It’s named in honor of the man who introduced the strategy to the general public: Stanford Wong. He wrote a book entitled “Sharp Sports Betting” in which he explains this strategy in detail. It’s a simple strategy for beginners to use once they understand the basics, which is why we’ve mentioned it here. We won’t get into exactly how it works though, because we’ve covered it fully on the following page.

Some Final Points

We started this article by stating that there is no single correct way to decide which football wagers to place. We’ll reiterate that point here. Why? Because it’s VERY important.

It’s unlikely, and probably impossible, that you’re ever going to find some straightforward system that will consistently help you to find winners. Betting on football is just not that easy. There’s too much unpredictability, and too many factors affecting games. No single strategy is able to compensate for that.

This actually goes for pretty much every football betting strategy you can use, not just the ones we’ve discussed here. It’s simply not realistic to think that any strategy will work all the time, and in all situations. They’re all limited in one way or another, even the more advanced ones.

Please note that this doesn’t mean that no football betting strategy is worth using. Quite the opposite, in fact. They can be very valuable. It’s just that they have to be used in the right way and at the right time. And, ultimately, it’s up to you to learn how to use them effectively. It’s important to determine which ones work for you, and which ones don’t. To do that, you have to put them into practice and learn from your experiences.

The strategies that we’ve listed on this page are the ones we recommend to beginners. This is primarily because they’re both simple and easy to understand. They’re not perfect, and they do have some flaws as we’ve discussed. Regardless, they do have some merit too, and they can help you achieve respectable betting results while you’re learning and gaining experience.

As you become more experienced, you’ll be able to adjust these strategies and combine them with others. This will help to make them even more effective. The end goal should really be to develop your own personal theories and strategies that can turn you into a winner.

Remember, if you truly want to be successful then you should never stop trying to learn and expand your knowledge. There’s a lot more information and advice throughout our football betting strategy guide that will help you to do this. The following pages specially are useful for learning additional strategies that are a little more advanced than the ones we’ve outlined here.

If you’re fed up of chasing the life-altering win through throwing together stupidly sized accumulators then join the club. You are not alone. Instead of giving up though, why not explore one of these football trading strategies?

In 2021 we’re lucky enough to have the world of football at our fingertips. As a result, it’s never been easier to bet on the sport we love yet most punters still haemorrhage their money away. I’ve been there. Believe me. Don’t fear though because over the years I’ve put plenty of research into beating the system and here I’m going to give you the five best football betting strategies to help turn you a profit.

How are football trading strategies different to normal betting?

The core difference between being a regular bettor and following a trading strategy is simply the fact that the strategic approach tends to follow a consistent set of rules. This approach won’t generally tee you up for a one off payday but, over an extended period, you should be winning on a more consistent basis. That’s the logic at least.

Of course, you might be reading this thinking ‘I did follow the same set of rules’. Maybe you did, maybe you had a strategy. Perhaps it just wasn’t a good one. Don’t worry though, we’ve got a few of the best and most trusted football trading strategies for you to cast your eyes over – and one to avoid!

7. Goliath Bets

Are Goliath bets guaranteed to make you money? No but your odds of making a profit are greatly improved.

Traditionally, a Goliath bet is based off eight selections – let’s call it eight teams to win. Usually in this scenario you’d end up with an eight-fold accumulator but by using the Goliath option your bet is broken down into 247 different outcomes. These 247 selections cover every possible combination from doubles up to an eight-fold win. As such, your stake is multiplied so a 10p stake will actually cost you £24.70.

Although that’s a dramatic ramp up of stake, just two selections coming in will see you with some winnings (not necessarily profit) even though six of your eight selection were wrong. The more of your selections you get right, the more you win and the returns can be huge. It’s this final point why your football knowledge and research is still vital.

6. Arbitrage betting

Arbitrage betting is probably something you’ve heard of but perhaps never believed to be viable. Let me assure you that it is completely viable. You’ll be turning a profit in no time. Arbitrage betting is all focused on exploiting the variation in odds across different bookmakers. Each bookie applies their own statistical approach to setting odds for an event.

As a result, you will occasionally find games where both outcomes are priced in a manner that promises a profit – regardless of who wins. Let’s look at a draw no bet example from the upcoming League One fixtures using the decimal odds format:

Sunderland to win is priced at 1.53 with SkyBet whilst Bristol Rovers are available at 3.10 with BetVictor. By strategically adjusting your stakes you can guarantee a profit:

£66.95 stake * 1.53 = £102.43

£33.05 stake * 3.10 = £102.46

This means your outlay is a combined £100 with a minimum return of £102.43; a near 2.5% return on investment. It doesn’t sound much but it’s a banker for profitable returns whilst you will also find more appealing bets as you explore opportunities. A 2.5% return for an afternoon’s work is also somewhat higher than a bank would pay.

5. Matched betting

Matched betting guarantees you a profit. Interested? I thought so. So how does it work? You’ll probably be well aware of all the free bet offers advertised by the many bookmakers. Well, matched betting only works when a free bet is available.

First things first, you need to find a free bet – most bookies offer these on sign up. Then it’s a case of finding a suitable event to wager on; you’ll need something that doesn’t have a clear favourite. It’s then a case of using your free bet to back a winner whilst utilising a betting exchange website to ‘lay’ against the team you’ve backed. A lay bet is simply saying I think team X will not win thus covering a loss and draw. You now have all three outcomes covered.

Of course, you need to calculate the relevant stake to lay whilst your amount at risk – called the lay liability – is higher than the stake as it needs to cover potential losses because of how betting exchanges work.

Don’t worry though because profit is guaranteed! Let’s look at an example:

Today, Kilmarnock host Dundee United. Your free bet, which in this instance will be via SkyBet, is to back the home side i.e. I think Kilmarnock will win. The odds are 2.30. You can lay the bet i.e. I think Kilmarnock will fail to win with Smarkets at 2.42.

£10 free bet stake * 2.30 = £23 – £10 as the stake isn’t returned = £13

Lay £5.42 * 2.42 = £13.12 (your liability is £7.70, the difference between £13.12 and £5.42, which is the backers stake).

If your ‘back’ bet wins, you make £13.00 profit from SkyBet but lose £7.70 on the Smarkets lay bet i.e. you’ve made £5.30 profit. If, however, Kilmarnock lose or draw then you win nothing on the SkyBet side but scoop your profit from Smarkets at £5.42 (minus a small commission).

The only other thing to consider is that most free bets require you to place a qualifying bet. Follow the same back and lay process as above and you will make a very minimal loss – usually pence – which will be more than covered in the second bet.

4. Price boost exploitation

Nearly every online bookmaker offers their customers enhanced odds on a daily basis. 99% of punters who take the bet do exactly that, they gamble hoping to win at the increased price. The 1% that remains know how to exploit these offers for positive return. We know that different bookies price events in different ways, which can present opportunities of its own where you can cover all outcomes for a win. These bets are not risk free though with accounts likely to be restricted and, potentially, closed. Price boosts can sometimes present the same possibilities but without the risk of account implications. The reason being that bookies want you to take their boosted odds.

The method to this strategy is to place a ‘back’ bet on the boosted odds and then headelsewhere to cover the other possible outcomes; typically, this will be done via betting exchanges and, specifically, using a lay bet. With the exception of odds moving and liquidity issues, this strategy is a banker; returns are generally smaller though.

3. Lay betting strategies

We’ve just touched on lay bets in the above. Essentially, they are just a way of saying ‘that won’t happen’ rather than the traditional betting approach of ‘this will happen’. The logic to a lay bet does present opportunity though and it’s something plenty of bettors do. We’ll talk about two examples of how to use lay betting as a strategy.

Football Betting Strategy

The first is focussed on laying correct scores. It’s well known that predicting the exact score line of a football match is one of the hardest bets to win. With that nugget planted firmly in your mind, lay bets allow you to say ‘it won’t be that score’. Of course, there are plenty of score possibilities in any given match too meaning you can have several lay bets placed at once. The only way you lose is when one of the scores you lay actually washes in as the correct score.

The second of the lay football trading strategies we look at focuses on targeting specific in-play games. First of all, you’ll be looking for matches where you have a heavy favourite (cup matches can work well). The prospect of laying against a League Two side playing, for example, Man City is far from exciting. Your odds would be atrocious. If the underdog happens to take the lead though those odds start to improve. After all, it becomes like a handicap market. You now have the option to lay against the underdog with the idea that a significantly stronger team will come back.

Hopefully, we’ve covered the logic of a ‘lay bet’ in the above section regarding matched betting because you’ll be using it again here. Price boost exploitation is similar to arbitrage betting and matched betting – but it has two huge things in it’s favour over those. Where matched betting is concerned, you’re reliant on having free bets – that’s not the case here meaning nor is the qualifying bet. With arbitrage bets, you’re relying on an abnormally weighted set of odds on offer from a bookmaker – with price boosts, the bookie is deliberately giving you this edge whilst risk of being ‘gubbed’ (having your account restricted) is virtually zero. Why would a bookie do that? Plain and simply because most people won’t exploit the opportunity it creates and instead will just wager additional funds in a good old fashioned gamble.

So, in ordinary circumstances, prices on offer from bookmakers won’t vary massively – although there is some opportunity on offer as mentioned earlier – because across the board bookmakers don’t want to create an industry that can be fiddled. Price boosts, however, are intended to pull in new money and are only on handpicked events meaning the industry will remain in a healthy position. For people in the know, it’s time to get winning. This example explains how it is done:

In the opening Premier League fixtures, Everton travel to face Tottenham with a current price of 4.0 to win with SkyBet. Let’s fast forward a couple of weeks and imagine they’re boosted to 5.0. You can lay against an Everton win i.e. Spurs to win or draw with the Betfair Exchange at 4.5. You’re now into guaranteed profit territory:

£20 stake on the price boost * 5.0 = £100

Lay £22.32 * 4.5 = £100.44 (your liability is £78.12)

If your ‘back’ bet wins, you make £20 profit from SkyBet but lose £78.12 on the lay bet i.e. you’ve made £1.88 profit. If, however, Everton fail to win then you win nothing on the SkyBet side but scoop your profit from your lay bet giving you £1.87 profit after a 2% commission.

Again, like the Arbitrage bets, the returns aren’t always colossal but price boosts are available several times a day meaning profits can soon mount up with a lot of those who follow this method making a well north of £100 per week.

2. Player trading platforms

The nextstop on our tour of the best football trading strategies comes with somewhat of a twist; player trading platforms. Football Index were the first to market with this sort of ‘gambling meets fantasy football’ model; now though sites like Footstock and Sorare have also emerged in a similar space. What are they?

Well the specifics associated to each one depends on what site you look at because they are all different. The manner of making money is similar though. In really simplistic terms, player trading platforms allow you to buy real life footballers (in a virtual world) who are then rated based on their actual performances in actual games through data like that captured by Opta. Performance can be rewarded through the payment of dividends or prizes and, as with stock markets, capital appreciation i.e. buy low, sell high is the end game.

1. Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion method

The Best Soccer Betting Strategy Tactics

Here we look at a trading strategy that was developed to profit in the financial world. Its transition to football betting works seamlessly and, as football trading strategies go, it’s probably the one with the best grounding to help you build sustainable profit. It will take some getting used to though. The main reason for this is because the Kelly Criterion method is all about probability and bankroll management; this means you’ll need to master a few mathematical calculations before you can really set about using it. We realise that might not be uber appealing to a lot of people but the flip side is that you can apply the strategy to pretty much any event you want.

The starting place for the Kelly Criterion strategy is locating an event you’d like to bet on; let’s call it a straight forward match result bet. Initially, there are two pieces of information you will need; the first is given to you by the bookmaker – the odds. The second will take a bit more effort; you need to work out the actual probability. There are a lot of ways to do this so we won’t tread that path right now. These two elements form the basis of the first mathematical calculation, which shows the value of a bet.

If the value of the first calculation is negative then you do not bet on the event. If the value is positive then you can move on to the second calculation, which determines how much money you should look to stake. Of course, everyone will have different bankrolls and therefore your answer will be expressed as a percentage. This will give you a third and final calculation to establish how much cash you need to stake.

A real-life Kelly Criterion example

For the purposes of our calculation, we’re using the SkyBet odds of 2.60 for Burnley to win at home against Fulham. We’ll be using a probability of 42% and a bankroll of £500.

The first calculation:

The structure of the calculation is ‘(Probability as a decimal * decimal Odds )-1 = Value‘.

With our specific selection it is ‘(0.42 * 2.60)-1 = 0.092 i.e. 9.2%

As this is a positive number we move on to calculation two.

The second calculation:

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The structure of the calculation is ‘Answer of calculation 1 in decimal form/ (odds – 1) = Stake percentage’

With our specific selection it is ‘0.092/(2.60 – 1) = 0.0575 i.e. 5.75%

The final calculation:

The structure of the calculation is ‘Bankroll * Answer of calculation 2= Stake’

With our specific selection it is ‘£500 * 5.75% = £28.75’

Which football trading strategies should you avoid?

The Martingale Method

The Martingale strategy was originally born in the casino world. It has slowly been adopted into sport. From a logical standpoint, it makes sense as to how you can profit following the process. It works. The practice will even see you thrown out of a casino. It does, however, come with a substantial warning; out of all the football betting strategies we mention this one comes with the highest risks because of the need for a big starting bankroll and the fact you can theoretically max out the staking limits bookies put in place.

The casino game the Martingale method was developed around is roulette. You pick a colour (red or black) and constantly double your stake until you win and, because the odds are evens i.e. 1/1, you’ll always end up with a profit equal to your starting stake. It’s a similar thought process in football. You find a bet where the odds are greater than or equal to evens and bet time and time again until it comes in, each time doubling your stake. Logically sound.

The trouble is, even starting with a modest stake of £1, if you run through 10 losses in a row you need to find some big money – by most people standards. Why? Well, £1 becomes £2, £2 becomes £4 and before you know it the stake for bet number 10 is £512 and you’ve already spent £511 over the past nine bets. That’s over a grand and even if you win bet 10, you’re only gaining £1 profit. It might take a good week to walk through this process too.

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There you have it, our overview of some of the football betting strategies that could help transform the way you bet.

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Good luck.