Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
The biggest differences on the moneyline though, aside from no point spread, is the payout. The idea behind a point spread is to bring the two teams in a match up to a more even playing field. If a team is better than the other, the points given by the favorite brings the underdog to a more even field. That is not the case on the moneyline. American odds are displayed in hundreds and thousands (-110, +500, +1500, etc). Be sure to enter the minus sign (-) if applicable to your odds. Decimal odds are displayed as a number greater than. A moneyline wager simply asks the bettor to choose which team will win a game, with no point spread involved. The payout odds on the favorite and underdog can differ significantly on a moneyline bet.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
As we discussed, point spread bets are adjusted by manipulating the number of points a team is favored or an underdog. With moneyline bets, this is achieved by manipulating the payouts. The bigger the favorite a team is, the less money you will be paid on a winning bet.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.
One of the most common types of sports betting lines when wagering on a game is the moneyline. You will see moneyline odds for every game and every sport played for the most part. While some games that have a very large spread but stray away from offering a moneyline, it is still one of the most popular styles of betting. A moneyline is a type of straight wager where the bettor wagers simply on who will win the contest, straight up – without any spread involved.
The easiest way to think of moneyline betting odds is that you are only betting on who wins the game. It does not matter how many points or goals they win by, all that matters is who wins. If you see a - (negative) symbol then that team is the favorite and the team with the + (plus) sign is the underdog. Keep reading below to understand how moneyline odds work or visit the homepage of ExplainBettingOdds.com to read about odds in general.
Understanding How Moneyline Betting Odds Work
The moneyline is used exactly the same no matter what sport you are betting on. All you must do is select who you believe will with the matchup without any other thought behind you. By taking the favorite, a bettor would have to risk more money than what their expected return would be. Because there is no point spread involved to handicap the game, the oddsmakers and books handicap the payouts to ensure their book stays balanced. Betting on the underdog will result in a much better payout, as the oddsmakers have deemed this team less likely to lose. As you take action on either the favorite or the underdog and select the moneyline, a ratio of $100 is used to represent the payouts.
Seems pretty easy right?
Well, it's definitely easier than betting the point spread, in which a team has to cover a spread installed for a match up however you should know that moneyline wagers do not payout the same as a wager against the spread. Keep reading to learn more about payouts when betting on the moneyline.
Understanding Payouts When Betting On The Moneyline
The biggest differences on the moneyline though, aside from no point spread, is the payout. The idea behind a point spread is to bring the two teams in a match up to a more even playing field. If a team is better than the other, the points given by the favorite brings the underdog to a more even field. That is not the case on the moneyline.
Simply put, you will have to risk a whole lot more money on a favorite to profit. On the flip side though, if you bet on the underdog, the potential profit is a lot bigger on the moneyline than betting on the point spread. That is because the likelihood of the underdog winning is slim on the moneyline.
Explanation Of How Moneylines Work In MLB
- Atlanta Braves -300
- Philadelphia Phillies +200
This is an example of a moneyline you could see in Major League Baseball. The Braves are matching up with the Phillies, with Atlanta set as the favorite. You can tell Atlanta is the favorite because of the minus symbol. It is indicative of the amount that must be risked to return a profit. At -300, a $1 profit is made for every $3 risked on the Braves to win the game. On the other side, at +200, that is the same as saying 2/1. That means, for every $1 risked on Philadelphia to win the game, a $2 profit is returned. Moneylines are simply straight-up betting lines with no spread involved, which is why they can range quite significantly.
Article: How To Read MLB Betting Odds
Understanding The Moneyline In Football
- Denver Broncos -300
- Jacksonville Jaguars +300
Here in this example, the Broncos have been set in the role of the favorite, going off at -300 on the betting line. That means, for every $3 risked on Denver to win, a $1 profit is returned. So if you wager $30 on Denver to win, you stand to win $10. On the flip side, the Jaguars are set as a +300 underdog. That means for every $1 risked on Jacksonville, a $3 profit is returned. So if you were to wager $10 on Jacksonville to win, you would profit $30. So you can certainly see the disparity on the payout and why someone might want to take the Jaguars over the Broncos. Also, taking underdog moneylines in parlay bets can be huge for your payouts!
Article: How To Read College Football Betting Odds - How To Read NFL Betting Odds
Understanding The Moneyline Odds In The NBA
- Los Angeles Lakers +200
- Miami Heat -200
Here in this moneyline example for the NBA, the Lakers are matching up with the Heat. Miami has been set in the role of the betting favorite, going off at -200 on the betting line. As such, a $2 wager is needed to profit $1. So if you were to wager $200 on Miami, as $100 profit is returned if the bet is won. On the other side of the equation, the Lakers are in the underdog role. at +200, that is the same as 2/1. So, for every $1 risked on L.A to win, a $2 profit is returned. You can see a wide range of profits for a moneyline, because the underdog and favorite can be far apart straight up with no point spread.
Article: How To Read NBA Betting Odds
Bovada Sportsbook - Best Sports Betting Site For Betting On The Moneyline
Moneylines are one of the most popular bets that players get involved in. There are always teams that are expected to beat other teams. The margin of victory may be pretty wide. The big thing that sticks out here is how big of a favorite some teams are.
There plenty of moneylines that might show a team being a heavy favorite and if players bet against them, that is a very huge profitable opportunity. Upsets are always going to happen so this is where a lot of bread can be won. There are also toss-up games as well that many players take a stab at as well and end up cashing big on Bovada. This is the place to get when it comes to Moneyline bets regardless if its blowouts or close games.
BetOnline Sportsbook - Best Sportsbook With Great Moneylines
How Does Point Spread Work In Nba
It's clear that BetOnline is one of the best sportsbooks for players and the moneylines that are offered are one of the main reasons why. There is news coming out all the time about teams prior to games and as soon as news drop that effects a team, it also affects the Moneyline on BetOnline.
This is what gives BetOnline a bonus over other sportsbooks because of the consistent update of Moneyline and always moving. Place your bet early could also be a great idea because of the news that could swing later on that week or day before matchup. BetOnline has it set up to where if any changes need to have done that is possible.
SportsBetting's Sportsbook - Lots Of Betting Odds When Betting On Moneylines
There are a number of things that SportsBetting sportsbook offers that makes it one of the better online sportsbooks for players. When it comes to picking some of these games with favorable matchups, the Moneyline does really determine how much players want to put down on these games. Most of the time, these games have the favorite that doesn’t really see players win a lot unless they put a lot of money down. When it comes to upsets, however, this is where players can have their lives change by just one pick.
Players with SportsBetting account have seen the Moneyline and have taken advantage of that the line because of the possible big payout. When you see a team like the Lions be underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals pull out the victory, only one thing is happening and that is big money is being handed out to all the players who took the chance on SportsBettting.
MyBookie Sportsbook - Money Line On MyBookie One of The Best
Win Percentage To Moneyline
It is hard to find any sportsbook that has better moneylines that MyBookie. The way Moneyline works is very simple and most of the time it changes depending on what players are playing and are not. This often changes and sometimes in the favor of a player's bet. MyBookie is known for having a lot of people cash big when picking the Moneyline and the reason why is simple, their lines are better.
See the underdog betting like at (+115) is not bad but MyBookie will have that same under down with a Moneyline of (+130) which would win players more money if they were to bet on that underdog team. This is why shopping for lines is so important for all players. You can like a team to win a game and have decided you want to place a wager on them but once shopping around for lines, there is a big chance that you will find that MyBookie has the best moneylines.
Ncaa Basketball Moneyline
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